Дали на септемврийската си среща Федералният резерв ще вдигне лихвените проценти за първи път от 2006 г. насам, пита се Лорънс Съмърс, професор от Харвардския университет и бивш финансов министър на САЩ, на страниците на Financial Times.
Фед даде индикации, че при липса на непредвидени обстоятелства вероятно ще вдигне лихвите до края на годината. Условията обаче биха могли да се променят и централната банка внимателно избегна окончателни ангажименти.
Разумната оценка на настоящите условия предполага, че повишаването на лихвите в близко бъдеще ще бъде сериозна грешка, която ще застраши трите основни цели на Фед - ценовата стабилност, пълната заетост и финансовата стабилност.
Подобно на повечето големи централни банки Фед прилага целта си за ценовата стабилност чрез приемане на цел за 2 процента инфлация годишно. Най-големият риск е, че инфлацията може да е по-ниска от това ниво - риск, който се повишава със затягането на политиката. Повече от половината от компонентите на индекса на потребителските цени (CPI) са намалели през последните шест месеца - за първи път от повече от едно десетилетие насам.
Инфлацията, която изключва нестабилните цени на енергията и храните и трудния за измерване жилищен сектор, е по-малко от 1 на сто. Пазарни мерки, базирани на очакванията, сочат, че през следващите 10 години инфлацията ще бъде доста под 2 на сто. Ако валутите на Китай и други развиващи се пазари се обезценят още, инфлацията в САЩ ще бъде още по-смекчена.
Затягането на паричната политика ще се отрази неблагоприятно на равнищата на заетост, защото по-високите лихви правят държането на кеш по-привлекателен, отколкото инвестирането му. По-високите лихвени проценти също ще оскъпят долара, което ще направи по-малко конкурентни американските производители.
Това е особено тревожно в момент на растящо неравенство. Изследванията на периоди на затегнат пазар на труда, като в края на 90-те и през 60-те показват, че най-добрата социална програма за работници в неравностойно положение е икономика, в която работодателите имат проблем със запълването на вакантните места.
Преди шест или девет месеца може и да имаше аргументи за вдигане на лихвите в името на финансовата стабилност, тъй като ниските лихви бяха окуражаващи за инвеститорите да поемат по-големи рискове, а фирмите да вземат пари назаем и да се впускат във финансов инженеринг. По това време аз вярвах, че икономическите разходи от увеличаването на лихвите превишават ползите за финансовата стабилност. Този дебат остава спорен.
Сега самите пазари загърбват всяка еуфория или свръхувереност, така че няма нужда Фед да се намесва. Това е така, тъй като кредитът става все по-скъп, перспективите за китайската икономика се влошават, развиващите се пазари са надолу, фондовият пазар на САЩ е в корекция, има широко разпространени опасения за ликвидността, а очакваната волатилност е на рекордни нива.
В този момент на нестабилност повишаване на лихвите рискува да тласне част от финансовата система към криза с непредвидими и опасни последици.
Защо тогава толкова много хора вярват, че увеличение на лихвите е необходимо? Съмнявам се, че ако те бяха 4 на сто, щеше да има голям натиск за вдигането им. Натискът идва от усещането, че икономиката се е нормализирала значително през шестте години на възстановяване, поради което извънредните стимули на нулевите лихвени проценти следва да бъдат оттеглени. Има много приказки за "насрещни ветрове", които изискват ниски лихвени проценти в момента, но те ще отзвучат скоро, позволявайки нормален растеж и нормални лихвени проценти.
Каквито и достойнства да имаше тази гледна точка преди няколко години, тя е много по-малко правдоподобна с наближаването на седмата годишнина от краха на Lehman Brothers. Вече не е лесно да се мисли за икономически условия, които достоверно може да се разглеждат като временни насрещни ветрове. Фискалната спирачка вече я няма. Банките са добре капитализирани. Корпорациите са пълни с кеш. Балансите на домакинствата са съществено стабилизирани.
Много по-правдоподобно е виждането, че по причини, вкоренени в технологичните и демографските промени и подсилени от по-строга регулация на финансовия сектор, глобалната икономика има проблем с генериране на търсенето на всичко, което може да бъде произведено. Това е диагнозата за "трайната стагнация", или много подобната идея, която Бен Бернанке, бившият председател на Фед, нарече „пренасищане на спестявания".
Задоволителният растеж, ако може да бъде постигнат, изисква много ниски лихвени проценти, които в исторически план сме виждали само по време на икономически кризи. Ето защо пазарите на дългосрочни облигации ни казват, че реалните лихвени проценти се очаква да са близки до нула в индустриализирания свят през следващото десетилетие.
Новите условия изискват нови политики. Има много неща, които трябва да се направят, като стъпки за насърчаване на публичните и частните инвестиции, така че да се повиши нивото на реалните лихвени проценти, съответстващо на пълна заетост. Освен ако тези нови политики не бъдат въведени, инфлацията не се ускори рязко или не избухне пазарна еуфория, то Фед няма аргументи да коригира политиката на лихвените проценти.
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