IMG Investor Dnes Bloombergtv Bulgaria On Air Gol Tialoto Az-jenata Puls Teenproblem Automedia Imoti.net Rabota Az-deteto Blog Start Posoka Boec Megavselena.bg

Л. Съмърс: Вдигането на лихвите от Фед ще бъде грешка

То ще застраши трите основни цели на централната банка, смята финансистът

08:33 | 25.08.15 г. 25
Автор - снимка
Създател
Л. Съмърс: Вдигането на лихвите от Фед ще бъде грешка

Дали на септемврийската си среща Федералният резерв ще вдигне лихвените проценти за първи път от 2006 г. насам, пита се Лорънс Съмърс, професор от Харвардския университет и бивш финансов министър на САЩ, на страниците на Financial Times.

Фед даде индикации, че при липса на непредвидени обстоятелства вероятно ще вдигне лихвите до края на годината. Условията обаче биха могли да се променят и централната банка внимателно избегна окончателни ангажименти.

Разумната оценка на настоящите условия предполага, че повишаването на лихвите в близко бъдеще ще бъде сериозна грешка, която ще застраши трите основни цели на Фед - ценовата стабилност, пълната заетост и финансовата стабилност.

Подобно на повечето големи централни банки Фед прилага целта си за ценовата стабилност чрез приемане на цел за 2 процента инфлация годишно. Най-големият риск е, че инфлацията може да е по-ниска от това ниво - риск, който се повишава със затягането на политиката. Повече от половината от компонентите на индекса на потребителските цени (CPI) са намалели през последните шест месеца - за първи път от повече от едно десетилетие насам.

Инфлацията, която изключва нестабилните цени на енергията и храните и трудния за измерване жилищен сектор, е по-малко от 1 на сто. Пазарни мерки, базирани на очакванията, сочат, че през следващите 10 години инфлацията ще бъде доста под 2 на сто. Ако валутите на Китай и други развиващи се пазари се обезценят още, инфлацията в САЩ ще бъде още по-смекчена.

Затягането на паричната политика ще се отрази неблагоприятно на равнищата на заетост, защото по-високите лихви правят държането на кеш по-привлекателен, отколкото инвестирането му. По-високите лихвени проценти също ще оскъпят долара, което ще направи по-малко конкурентни американските производители.

Това е особено тревожно в момент на растящо неравенство. Изследванията на периоди на затегнат пазар на труда, като в края на 90-те и през 60-те показват, че най-добрата социална програма за работници в неравностойно положение е икономика, в която работодателите имат проблем със запълването на вакантните места.

Преди шест или девет месеца може и да имаше аргументи за вдигане на лихвите в името на финансовата стабилност, тъй като ниските лихви бяха окуражаващи за инвеститорите да поемат по-големи рискове, а фирмите да вземат пари назаем и да се впускат във финансов инженеринг. По това време аз вярвах, че икономическите разходи от увеличаването на лихвите превишават ползите за финансовата стабилност. Този дебат остава спорен.

Сега самите пазари загърбват всяка еуфория или свръхувереност, така че няма нужда Фед да се намесва. Това е така, тъй като кредитът става все по-скъп, перспективите за китайската икономика се влошават, развиващите се пазари са надолу, фондовият пазар на САЩ е в корекция, има широко разпространени опасения за ликвидността, а очакваната волатилност е на рекордни нива.

В този момент на нестабилност повишаване на лихвите рискува да тласне част от финансовата система към криза с непредвидими и опасни последици.

Защо тогава толкова много хора вярват, че увеличение на лихвите е необходимо? Съмнявам се, че ако те бяха 4 на сто, щеше да има голям натиск за вдигането им. Натискът идва от усещането, че икономиката се е нормализирала значително през шестте години на възстановяване, поради което извънредните стимули на нулевите лихвени проценти следва да бъдат оттеглени. Има много приказки за "насрещни ветрове", които изискват ниски лихвени проценти в момента, но те ще отзвучат скоро, позволявайки нормален растеж и нормални лихвени проценти.

Каквито и достойнства да имаше тази гледна точка преди няколко години, тя е много по-малко правдоподобна с наближаването на седмата годишнина от краха на Lehman Brothers. Вече не е лесно да се мисли за икономически условия, които достоверно може да се разглеждат като временни насрещни ветрове. Фискалната спирачка вече я няма. Банките са добре капитализирани. Корпорациите са пълни с кеш. Балансите на домакинствата са съществено стабилизирани.

Много по-правдоподобно е виждането, че по причини, вкоренени в технологичните и демографските промени и подсилени от по-строга регулация на финансовия сектор, глобалната икономика има проблем с генериране на търсенето на всичко, което може да бъде произведено. Това е диагнозата за "трайната стагнация", или много подобната идея, която Бен Бернанке, бившият председател на Фед, нарече „пренасищане на спестявания".

Задоволителният растеж, ако може да бъде постигнат, изисква много ниски лихвени проценти, които в исторически план сме виждали само по време на икономически кризи. Ето защо пазарите на дългосрочни облигации ни казват, че реалните лихвени проценти се очаква да са близки до нула в индустриализирания свят през следващото десетилетие.

Новите условия изискват нови политики. Има много неща, които трябва да се направят, като стъпки за насърчаване на публичните и частните инвестиции, така че да се повиши нивото на реалните лихвени проценти, съответстващо на пълна заетост. Освен ако тези нови политики не бъдат въведени, инфлацията не се ускори рязко или не избухне пазарна еуфория, то Фед няма аргументи да коригира политиката на лихвените проценти.

Всяка новина е актив, следете Investor.bg и в Google News Showcase.
Последна актуализация: 01:26 | 14.09.22 г.
Специални проекти виж още
Най-четени новини

Коментари

51
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
[b]blablack timberland bootswhite timberland boots
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
50
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
timberland boots for women | timberland boots | timberland outletKids Timberland Chocolate [Timberland Boots UK-205] - $68.00 : Timberland outlet, timberlandproof.comlanguage:  
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
49
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
[b][url=http://***.nuvo-music.com/]sterling silver tiffany[/url][/b][b][url=http://***.nuvo-music.com/]tiffany outlet store[/url][/b]Hub.This unique hub features several usb ports.So in place of unplugging a person device in order to plug for another, a universal serial bus hub will allow you to connect numerous devices.To put in place a universal series bus hub using your pc you must be sure the body help you connect all the hub.If your primary computer seemed to be made just before 1997 it in all likelihood won't program a UNIVERSAL SERIAL BUS.Check your hard drive to see whenever a a usb port on the market.Think about the reason you ought to purchase a USB switch.This will assist in deciding the actual usb hub you ought to purchase.And research the nuvi 780 you must connect, as had been devices are usually connected to make sure you USB hubs.Both of them types for USB hubs could be the Self Motorized which forces power out of an external power supply and your bus motorized hub which can be inserted with an expansion video slot and pulls power from the motherboard.Some systems that use large volumes of vitality work quickly with mci motor coach powered hubs.A scanner to ilsterling silver tiffanytiffany outlet storeHub.This unique hub features several usb ports.So in place of unplugging a person device in order to plug for another, a universal serial bus hub will allow you to connect numerous devices.To put in place a universal series bus hub using your pc you must be sure the body help you connect all the hub.If your primary computer seemed to be made just before 1997 it in all likelihood won't program a UNIVERSAL SERIAL BUS.Check your hard drive to see whenever a a usb port on the market.Think about the reason you ought to purchase a USB switch.This will assist in deciding the actual usb hub you ought to purchase.And research the nuvi 780 you must connect, as had been devices are usually connected to make sure you USB hubs.Both of them types for USB hubs could be the Self Motorized which forces power out of an external power supply and your bus motorized hub which can be inserted with an expansion video slot and pulls power from the motherboard.Some systems that use large volumes of vitality work quickly with mci motor coach powered hubs.A scanner to illustrate, will wotk more effective connected to the self motorized USB main.When connecting a computer device to the particular USB hub, see just what exactly version associated with usb it will be.USB 1.0 was the pioneer version released and after this the fast version is a usb three.0 Virtually all USB couple of.0 hubs are actually backward working.Web template them to jog the sluggish USB 1.0 items.The price on the hub some.0 mainstay varies out of about $25.00 towards $65.00 and really shines several models.The price varies according to the sheer number of ports you choose on any hub.INSTALLING A DIFFERENT USB MAIN Its always the best practice to help you backup any files so that you can work with your computer.Get rid of the hub through its filling and attentively inspect the application for damaged and grow sure many components exist.Stop and additionally carefully look into the hub regular for instructions just like turn a computer from first or you must install the software program before joining the hub towards the computer.If you have had a derived hub, plug the force cord within a outlet and additionally connect typically the usb cable with the usb main into a open UNIVERSAL SERIAL BUS port.With the particular hub connected place any cdrom that have the link and install software program onto the disk drive.Set this USB hub from a location where you could easily attach your protection, modem, and / or other systems.Remember that computer simply runs along at the highest universal series bus speed.If your primary hub may be a USB two.0 however your computer exclusively supports USB 1.0 then that 1.0 connection could be your optimum speed.If your primary USB switch is personal powered, install this card on an empty dominion slot from removing the device unit handle, removing a retaining screw and cover out of your slot, firmly move the card in your slot, and take advantage of the retaining screw to guarantee it into the motherboard.Start your printer and your computer should recognize the revolutionary device.Install every software that were included with the main.You must install a device driver allowing the computer system to talk to your the link.Its with such ease and you should make it something fun to try and do.Learn as you may go and turn into in the attitude to like your mission.You will await perform other tasks from the same mind set.
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
48
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
[b][url=http://***.nuvo-music.com/]tiffany jewellery[/url][/b] | [b][url=http://***.nuvo-music.com/]tiffany jewellery[/url][/b] | [b][url=http://***.nuvo-music.com/]tiffany and co online shop[/url][/b]Return to Tiffany Heart Tag Gold Bracelet - $56.00 : cheap tiffany Jewelry, nuvo-music.comlanguage:[url=http://***.nuvo-music.com/de/][img]http://***.nuvo-music.com/langimg/gericon.gif[/img]Deutsch[/url] [url=http://***.nuvo-music.com/fr/][img]http://***.nuvo-music.com/langimg/fricon.gif[/img]Fran
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
47
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
cartier love braceletcartiercartier watchCartier Double C Motif Bracelet in Yellow Gold - $90.00 : replica cartier watches, cartieronlinesale.comlanguage:  
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
46
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
[b][url=http://***.monclerjackets.co/moncler-boots-c-6.html]Moncler Boots for discount[/url][/b][b][url=http://***.monclerjackets.co/moncler-boots-c-6.html]Moncler Boots outlet[/url][/b]ince you also can distribute items online and not having to set up a real land based retailer.You may sell practically anything that interests everyone.To start yoMoncler Boots for discountMoncler Boots outletince you also can distribute items online and not having to set up a real land based retailer.You may sell practically anything that interests everyone.To start you'll want to set up a web site that can take orders, and additionally determine where you intend to get a products as a result of.Fifth, don? t neglect simple web programs if you desire an online enterprize opportunity.In the same manner that these types of programs work is straightforward; you receives paid for each visitor in customer which you send for the affiliate? 's site.All around, the finest home online enterprize is one that you are currently comfortable through.By finding the option that you are currently familiar by means of, you could increase your probabilities of success.If you're simply considering getting started straight away, you need to consider the options listed higher than.
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
45
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
[b]moncler jackets sale[/b][b][url=http://***.monclerjackets.co/]moncler jackets outlet[/url][/b][b]moncler jackets sale[/b]Moncler Jackets Womens : Moncler Outlet Online Store -82%OFF- Moncler jackets Outlet shoplanguage: [url=http://***.monclerjackets.co/fr/][img]http://***.monclerjackets.co/langimg/fricon.gif[/img]Fran
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
44
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
end decision to your account, but before ahead and make that will decision, lets' create a closer analyze most of the pro's and even con's of this device.This would give us additional information and will help us have a better option.Let's look at what this approach PDA typically offer you:1.This PDA may be very light and additionally compact primarily 4.5 ounces, in support of.50 long thick.It also has a modern day appearance so that it is a fashionable product or service.If looks and benefit matter to your account - this approach PDA will maintain that element easily.a pair of.The Windows CE Main system is fun for games along with multimedia utilizes.If that appeals to you and use all the entertainment stuff upon your PDA, this device offers you a lot bang for your buck.On the other one hand, for anyend decision to your account, but before ahead and make that will decision, lets' create a closer analyze most of the pro's and even con's of this device.This would give us additional information and will help us have a better option.Let's look at what this approach PDA typically offer you:1.This PDA may be very light and additionally compact primarily 4.5 ounces, in support of.50 long thick.It also has a modern day appearance so that it is a fashionable product or service.If looks and benefit matter to your account - this approach PDA will maintain that element easily.a pair of.The Windows CE Main system is fun for games along with multimedia utilizes.If that appeals to you and use all the entertainment stuff upon your PDA, this device offers you a lot bang for your buck.On the other one hand, for anybody who is more of any business boyfriend, you probably want to get your self a The company One instrument.The Palm OS will be much more of any business oriented system.3.This unit has only 1 expansion slot as opposed to the usual two that is included in most iPAQ's.I could only guess this has been down to keep the fee low, but this is a problem if you need to expand the skill sets of any PDA...3.The Processor for this PDA is usually a 200 MHz Intel PXA two hundred fifity processor.This can perform out find at the start, but would be a problem when you start running excessive applications on your PDA.Concentrate on the amount of software one install5.Any build through memory capabiolities really are 64 MB RANDOM ACCESS MEMORY, 16 MB adobe flash ROM.For a second time, this is okay at the start, but experience demonstrates that within a couple of years most most people need an increasing number of room.You can purchase you need to using an important 64MB Sd card, so your memory problem is usually addressed faster and easier than all the processor.6.The battery from a Removable/rechargeable 900 mAh Lithium-lon, a great variety, according to everyone reports.There is a al all long life extend to, and are able to support any iPAQ through hours associated with operation.Which means that, to deliberate on, I might say that the HP iPAQ 1910 Money PC is an efficient buy those of you that need an incredibly basic iPAQ, , nor expect to employ too a good deal memory and additionally processing vitality.The economical price may make this PDA a superb alternative to many individuals who lower demands the ones PDA.
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
43
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
Pandora Bunny Charm 791121 - $54.00 : cheap pandora Jewelry, pandorajewelryy.netlanguage:[url=http://***.pandorajewelryy.net/de/][img]http://***.pandorajewelryy.net/langimg/gericon.gif[/img]Deutsch[/url] [url=http://***.pandorajewelryy.net/fr/][img]http://***.pandorajewelryy.net/langimg/fricon.gif[/img]Fran
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
42
rate up comment 0 rate down comment 0
mnewsomesonny
преди 9 години
arry the required items during the day.New parents is able to use a backpack in the form of diaper backpack, leaving their automatically for responding to the kid.Of course students currently have known for long periods how easier life is a professional backpack.Together with the introduction for the laptop back pack, this invaluable bag created the leap on the corporate country.But similar to people, you wish the economical for ones own dollar.Fortunately a large huge quantity of stores plus websites via the web just waiting to present you first crack inside the various collections of low-cost backpacks.Cheap backpacks may be as well made simply because their higher in price counterparts.Often most of these bargain packs are only discontinued styles or it could be unpopular different shades.Either way since thearry the required items during the day.New parents is able to use a backpack in the form of diaper backpack, leaving their automatically for responding to the kid.Of course students currently have known for long periods how easier life is a professional backpack.Together with the introduction for the laptop back pack, this invaluable bag created the leap on the corporate country.But similar to people, you wish the economical for ones own dollar.Fortunately a large huge quantity of stores plus websites via the web just waiting to present you first crack inside the various collections of low-cost backpacks.Cheap backpacks may be as well made simply because their higher in price counterparts.Often most of these bargain packs are only discontinued styles or it could be unpopular different shades.Either way since the price is a plus doesn? t imply the high quality is cheap too.Usually there are some things to become while looking for the best cheap rucksacks.Things to bear in mind like when for making your select, checking just for quality, and by ensuring the bag fits the individual are all of the important elements.Almost it's well known that a great time to be into buying among the list of cheap backpacks is in the fall usually in the back in order to school buzz.A great deal of retailers decide to put some top quality backpacks available for purchase during that year or so.Waiting for a couple of weeks subsequently after school begins to book bag shop makes idea in addition.On most occasions, the values drop further so outlet stores can reduce any bags that could not sell from the initial run.Keeping a on Internet deals is likewise a fantastic method to find less expensive backpacks.The manufacturers will slow up the prices on in 2009? s styles effectively reducing the middleman.Periodically checking sites of your best makers is the best way to catch any deals once they happen.When the purchase of a backpack, you must be of course the sizing is going to be correct for the one who is able to use.Getting older make sense to order an person of legal age backpack for any child; the sizing might be off and may also be overweight for the small one.Cheap bags work precisely the same way.Be guaranteed your select is right right from the start.While looking into quality, look into the zippers, fastenings, and material suited for the inexpensive backpacks.Just because price is without a doubt low isn't going to mean quality ought to be.
отговор Сигнализирай за неуместен коментар
Финанси виж още